One way bets on pegged exchange rates
نویسندگان
چکیده
Measurement of the currency exposure of firms can yield insights into issues connected with exchange rate regimes and capital account liberalisation. We set out to measure the currency exposure of firms in India over the 1993-2008 period. We identify sources of bias in favour of non-rejection of the null of no-exposure, and address these in the estimation strategy. From 1998 to 2008, for some highly export-oriented industries, the null of zero exposure cannot be rejected. Barring these, for most industries, firms have stood to gain significantly from currency appreciation. This suggests that there was a consensus amongst firms about a one-way bet, and that there was enough de facto convertibility through which this view was translated into exposure. ∗This work was done under the NIPFP-DEA Research Program on Capital Flows and their Consequences. We are grateful to CMIE for all the databases used in the paper.
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